// NGX Valuation Tool · Free · No Login Required

PE Fair Value
Calculator

Estimate the intrinsic value of any NGX stock using earnings-based valuation. Model three scenarios — bull, base, and bear — across a 3 to 5 year horizon. Built on the same framework institutional analysts use.

PE × EPS Model 3-Scenario Analysis Margin of Safety Compound Growth Graham Number (coming soon) DCF Model (coming soon)
Inputs
Stock Ticker / Name e.g. GTCO, DANGCEM
Current Market Price (₦) Today's share price
Current EPS — Earnings Per Share (₦) Last 12 months EPS from annual report
PE Multiple Per Scenario What PE will market assign?
Bull ?
🐂 Bull Case
The optimistic scenario. Strong earnings growth, market is excited and pays a high PE multiple.
 18x
Base ?
🎯 Base Case
Your most realistic expectation. Not too optimistic, not too pessimistic.
 12x
Bear ?
🐻 Bear Case
The pessimistic scenario. Slow growth, low market confidence, low PE.
 7x
Annual EPS Growth Rate Per Scenario Expected yearly earnings growth %
Bull ?
🐂 Bull Case
Best case earnings growth. The company fires on all cylinders.
 20%
Base ?
🎯 Base Case
Your honest, realistic growth estimate based on history and management guidance.
 10%
Bear ?
🐻 Bear Case
Worst case growth. What if inflation spikes, revenue stalls, or the sector faces headwinds?
 2%
Margin of Safety Discount to fair value before buying
MOS 25%

All calculations run locally in your browser · No data is sent or stored

Results
◎
Enter your inputs and
calculate to see results
GTCO
Fair Value Analysis · PE × EPS Model
₦0.00
Current Price
🐂 Bull Case ?
Bull Case
Best case scenario. High growth + high PE. What the stock could be worth if everything goes right.
₦0
🎯 Base Case ?
Base Case
Most likely scenario. Your honest, realistic estimate. This is the number to anchor your conviction on.
₦0
🐻 Bear Case ?
Bear Case
Worst case scenario. Low growth + low PE. If you're still comfortable at this price, your conviction is real.
₦0
Base Case · Margin of Safety Price
₦0
The MOS price is the base case fair value discounted by your margin of safety %. Graham recommended a minimum 25% discount to intrinsic value before entering any position.
Metric Bull Base Bear

Save this analysis to your log.

Create a free account to log your conviction permanently — takes 30 seconds. Free forever.

// How This Calculator Works

The same framework institutional analysts use — explained simply.

Step 01 · Future EPS
Future EPS =
Current EPS × (1 + g)^n
We compound the current EPS forward using your expected growth rate g over n years. Use the annual report's latest EPS figure as your starting point.
Step 02 · Fair Value Price
Fair Value =
Future EPS × PE Multiple
We multiply future EPS by the PE multiple you expect the market to assign. NGX banking stocks typically trade 3–8x. Consumer goods 10–20x. Use sector peers as a guide.
Step 03 · Margin of Safety
MOS Price =
Fair Value × (1 - MOS%)
Never pay full intrinsic value. The margin of safety is the discount you demand before buying — your protection against being wrong. Benjamin Graham recommended 25–33%.
Important · Model Limitations
The PE model is a relative valuation tool — it tells you what a stock is worth if it earns what you project and the market assigns the PE you expect. Both assumptions can be wrong. No model replaces judgment.

Disclaimer: This calculator is provided for educational and research purposes only. ConvictionLog does not provide financial advice. All projections are estimates based on user-supplied inputs and mathematical models. Past earnings growth does not guarantee future performance. Investing in equities involves risk including the possible loss of principal. Always conduct your own due diligence or consult a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.

© 2026 ConvictionLog · Nigeria · Terms of Service  ·  Privacy Policy  ·  @conviction_log