Record Before You Deploy
Thesis First, Capital Second
Conviction Level 1–5
Weekly Reflections
Define Your Exit First
Institutional Discipline
NGX · Diaspora Investors
Free PE Valuation Calculator
Bull · Base · Bear Scenarios
Margin of Safety Built-In
Record Before You Deploy
Thesis First, Capital Second
Conviction Level 1–5
Weekly Reflections
Define Your Exit First
Institutional Discipline
NGX · Diaspora Investors
Free PE Valuation Calculator
Bull · Base · Bear Scenarios
Margin of Safety Built-In
For Serious Investors · NGX & Diaspora

Every trade deserves a
written conviction.

Institutional fund managers document their reason for buying before deploying capital. Now you can too. ConvictionLog forces the discipline that separates investors from gamblers.

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⚡ PE Calculator → 📊 All Analysis Tools → 📖 Beginners Guide →
5
Conviction Levels
Weekly Reflections
0₦
Cost to Start
1
Rule: Reason First

Run the numbers before
you deploy capital.

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PE Fair Value
Calculator

Model Bull, Base and Bear fair value for any NGX stock. Enter EPS, set your PE multiple and growth rate — get an intrinsic value and margin of safety entry price in seconds.

// 3-scenario Bull / Base / Bear analysis
// Margin of safety entry price
// Year 3, 4 and 5 projections
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Dividend Yield
Calculator

Is the dividend sustainable? Model payout ratios, yield on cost, and 5-year income projections for NGX dividend stocks like GTCO and Zenith.

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Position Size
Calculator

How much of your portfolio should this position be? Match allocation to conviction level and risk tolerance.

Planned
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Your biggest enemy
isn't the market.
It's your memory.

Most retail investors can't recall why they bought a stock 3 months later. They remember the price. They remember the loss. But the original reasoning? Gone — replaced by whatever story the market told them afterward.

This is called hindsight bias — the tendency to reconstruct past beliefs to match current outcomes. It's one of the most destructive cognitive errors in investing, and it thrives in the absence of documentation.

Institutional investors solved this decades ago. Every position has a written reason. A defined conviction level. Clear exit conditions — the specific conditions under which you admit you were wrong and get out.

ConvictionLog brings that same rigour to individual investors. Not to make investing complicated — but to make your reasoning impossible to forget and impossible to manipulate retroactively.

"An investment operation is one which, upon thorough analysis, promises safety of principal and an adequate return. Operations not meeting these requirements are speculative."
— Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor
The Three Biases ConvictionLog Fights
01 Hindsight Bias — "I knew it all along"
02 Disposition Effect — selling winners too early, holding losers too long
03 Narrative Fallacy — building stories that fit outcomes

Five fields that change
how you invest.

01
📌
Asset
Name the stock, bond, or asset. GTCO. Dangote Cement. BUA Foods. Be specific — vague positions are the first sign of weak conviction.
02
📝
Your Reason
Write your reasoning in full sentences. Why this asset, why now? If you can't articulate it, you don't understand it well enough to own it.
03
Conviction
Rate yourself honestly from 1 to 5. A level 2 position should be sized differently than a level 5. Your portfolio sizing should match your certainty.
04
Time Horizon
3 months? 2 years? Define it before you enter. This single field prevents more panic selling than any other discipline in investing.
05
🚨
When You'd Exit
What would make you wrong? Write it down now, before emotion enters the picture. When it happens, you exit — not because you're scared, but because you planned it.
// Conviction Scale — What Each Level Means
L1
Speculative. Small position. Still researching.
L2
Some reason. Watching closely. Limited capital.
L3
Solid reason. Standard position. Defined horizon.
L4
Strong conviction. Significant allocation. Clear edge.
L5
Highest conviction. Maximum allocation. Rare.

Built for the investor
who takes it seriously.

Conviction Logging
Document every position with asset, your reason for buying, conviction level, time horizon, and exit conditions — the same framework used by professional fund managers.
Weekly Reflections
Return to each position weekly. Update your thinking. Did anything change? Is your reason for buying still valid? The reflection practice is where real learning happens.
Conviction Updates
Markets change, and so should your conviction. Adjust your level as new information emerges — and see how your thinking evolved over time.
Exit Tracking
The most important discipline in investing. Define your exit conditions before emotion enters. When the conditions you set are met, you don't hesitate — you already decided.
Full Position History
Your complete investment journal. Every reason you wrote, every reflection you logged. Your intellectual audit trail — the thing most investors wish they had.
Free Forever Tier
No credit card. No subscription required to start. Built for NGX investors and diaspora — because good investment discipline shouldn't have a paywall.

Know what a stock is
actually worth
before you buy.

Most retail investors buy stocks based on tips, social media, or a feeling the price looks cheap. They have no idea what the stock is actually worth.

Professional analysts use the PE model — project earnings forward, multiply by a fair PE multiple, arrive at intrinsic value. Not guesswork. Math.

Our free PE Fair Value Calculator runs Bull, Base, and Bear scenarios across a 3 to 5 year horizon — with a built-in margin of safety so you never overpay. No login. No signup. Just answers.

Bull, Base and Bear scenarios with independent PE multiples and growth rates
Margin of Safety — the price you should actually pay, not just fair value
Year 3, 4 and 5 projections — most investors think too short term
Full methodology explained — every number is transparent and verifiable
One click to log your conviction — results flow straight into a new log
Try the Calculator Free
// Sample Output · GTCO · Year 3
🐂 Bull
₦94.20
+108% vs current
🎯 Base
₦62.40
+38% vs current
🐻 Bear
₦28.60
-37% vs current
Margin of Safety Price ₦46.80
Base case fair value discounted 25% — your disciplined entry price.
EPS: ₦3.90
Current: ₦45.20
Growth: 10% base
PE: 12x base

Stop trading on
feeling.
Start logging conviction.

Join investors who document their reason before deploying capital. Your future self will thank you for the receipts.

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Learn NGX Investing All Valuation Tools Beginners Guide

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// Learn

New to NGX Investing?
Start here.

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// Beginners Guide Complete Beginner 8 min read
How to Buy Your First NGX Stock — From Zero to Your First Trade
A plain-language walkthrough of the entire process: choosing a broker, opening a CSCS account, researching stocks with a PE valuation, placing your first order, and logging your conviction so you stay accountable.